New-Look Leafs Eyeing Major Turnaround; Washington, San Jose, and Utah on the Rise

Toronto is not the only organization entering the season with a substantially different roster. Washington added two proven scoring wingers through trades. Utah invested in veteran forwards to build on their playoff debut. San Jose surrounded its young core with established NHL players, while the Rangers rebuilt significant parts of their forward group and defence.

No team, however, stands to gain more from its new arrivals than Toronto.

That does not necessarily mean the Maple Leafs will win the Atlantic or even return to Stanley Cup contention, but their combination of draft talent, goaltending and experienced depth should produce a major standings improvement.

Nowhere to Go but Up

Toronto finished the 2025–26 season with a 32-36-14 record, 78 points and a minus-46 goal differential. Only four teams — Vancouver, Chicago, Calgary and the New York Rangers — finished with fewer points, while the Maple Leafs’ 299 goals allowed ranked among the worst totals in the league.

The offseason response addressed both ends of the roster.

Toronto selected Gavin McKenna first overall, signed Sergei Bobrovsky and Jack Roslovic in free agency, and acquired Nick Paul and Darren Raddysh in trades. Colton Sissons, Brandon Duhaime and Teddy Blueger also provide additional defensive and bottom-six options.

The Leafs are looking to make a substantial improvement. 15 points or more should place Toronto back in the Atlantic playoff race. A return above 95 points is possible, but the Leafs are betting on Bobrovsky to rebound from his difficult final season in Florida. At the other end of the ice, McKenna needs to become an immediate top-six contributor.

Three forces will determine whether that projection holds: Toronto’s goaltending correction, McKenna’s transition to the NHL and the ability of new veteran additions to reduce the team’s dependence on Auston Matthews and William Nylander.

Forecast No. 1: Bobrovsky will improve Toronto even without returning to his peak

Sergei Bobrovsky is the most consequential free-agent addition for the Maple Leafs because of the significant hole he is being asked to fill.

The 37-year-old signed a three-year contract with Toronto after going 27-23-1 with a 3.07 goals-against average and an .877 save percentage for Florida. Those numbers do not support the idea that the Maple Leafs have acquired an elite regular-season goaltender.

The Leafs are banking on Bobrovsky’s career body of work as a better indicator of the goaltender they recruited.

Bobrovsky won consecutive Stanley Cups with Florida in 2024 and 2025, posting a 32-15 record with a 2.26 goals-against average and .910 save percentage across those two playoff runs. He also joins a Toronto tandem that includes Anthony Stolarz, his former Panthers teammate. That familiarity should allow the Maple Leafs to manage Bobrovsky’s workload rather than treating him as a 60-game starter.

Toronto does not need Bobrovsky to reproduce his Vezina seasons. The Leafs do, however, need him and Stolarz to provide league-average or slightly better results behind a team that allowed 299 goals.

Even a modest correction could have a substantial effect. The Maple Leafs lost 14 games in overtime and another 12 by a single goal. Improved goaltending in a small portion of those games would move Toronto considerably closer to the playoff line.

The main concern is age. Bobrovsky’s decline last season was significant enough that it cannot automatically be dismissed as variance. A three-year commitment to a 37-year-old goaltender carries considerable risk, particularly if his lateral movement or recovery between starts continues to deteriorate.

The most likely outcome is somewhere between his two recent extremes. Bobrovsky may no longer be a Vezina candidate, but a managed tandem should help him outperform last season’s .877 save percentage. That alone would make Toronto materially better.

Forecast No. 2: McKenna will become Toronto’s most important new skater before midseason

Gavin McKenna enters the NHL seemingly more league-ready than most first-overall picks.

McKenna recorded 51 points in 35 games at Penn State, finishing fifth in NCAA scoring despite being the sixth-youngest player in men’s college hockey. His 1.46 points per game ranked second nationally. More importantly, his game is built around ice vision, passing and manipulating defensive coverage rather than relying entirely on physical advantages that sometimes disappear at the NHL level.

Moreover, McKenna does not have to drive his own line immediately. Toronto can place him with Matthews, Nylander or John Tavares and allow his playmaking to complement players who already command defensive attention. NHL.com’s draft analysis identified his vision and hockey intelligence as the qualities separating him from the rest of the class.

A realistic projection would place McKenna between 55 and 65 points if he remains healthy and receives a consistent top-six role. That would put him in the Calder Trophy race without requiring a Connor Bedard-level rookie season (61 points in 68 games).

McKenna represents immediate value on the powerplay as well, should the Leafs give him the opportunity. Toronto’s established shooters can convert the passing lanes McKenna creates, or they could protect their veteran stars on the top unit and give McKenna some time on the second unit.

The transition will not be seamless. At 5-foot-11 and approximately 170 pounds, McKenna will need to adapt to stronger defenders and less available space. Toronto must also resist the temptation to change his role whenever the team encounters an early losing streak. McKenna needs time to learn, adapt and grow in a bigger, faster league.

By midseason, however, McKenna should be more than a development story. He is likely to become one of Toronto’s primary offensive creators and the most impactful player from the 2026 draft class.

San Jose’s Ivar Stenberg is the strongest challenger. Stenberg produced 33 points in 43 Swedish Hockey League games—the highest total by an 18-year-old in the league since Daniel and Henrik Sedin—and already has experience against professionals. A potential line with Macklin Celebrini could immediately become one of the NHL’s most dynamic young combinations.

Forecast No. 3: Washington’s trade additions will have the biggest immediate impact on a playoff race

Toronto may produce the largest overall improvement, but Washington made the strongest win-now additions, acquiring Jordan Kyrou from St. Louis and Alex Tuch from Buffalo in separate trades. Washington also signed Tuch to an eight-year, $84 million contract, making him part of the long-term future, as Washington prepares for their Ovi-less future.

Kyrou is coming off an 18-goal, 46-point season, his lowest scoring total since 2020–21. Before that decline, he recorded three consecutive 30-goal seasons. His speed and ability to generate offence off the rush give Washington a dimension it has increasingly lacked.

Tuch adds size, transition offence, net-front scoring and defensive value. Together, he and Kyrou allow the Capitals to build two more balanced scoring lines instead of concentrating their offence around Ovechkin and Dylan Strome.

Washington earned 95 points last season but missed the playoffs. That places the Capitals close enough to the cut line that relatively small improvements could change their outcome. The team does not require either acquisition to become a superstar. If Kyrou returns to the 30-goal range and Tuch delivers his usual two-way impact, Washington should recover the points needed to qualify.

Boone Jenner adds another experienced centre and gives the Capitals greater matchup flexibility. His health remains a concern, but if he’s regularly available, Jenner’s defensive game and faceoff ability should help Washington protect leads and manage difficult assignments.

The Capitals are therefore the strongest candidate to make a playoff return based on their offseason activity. Their additions may not create the same overall standings jump as Toronto’s, but Washington begins much closer to contention.

Utah and San Jose will improve without becoming contenders

Utah and San Jose represent two different approaches to supporting young cores.

The Mammoth acquired Vincent Trocheck and signed Anders Lee to a three-year contract. Trocheck remains a reliable two-way centre who can play in every situation, while Lee has reached 20 goals in eight of the past 10 seasons. He also remains one of the league’s most consistent producers of high-danger shots.

Neither move transforms Utah’s ceiling, but both should stabilize its lineup. Trocheck can absorb difficult centre matchups, and Lee provides a net-front presence for a skilled group led by Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.

Utah appears poised for another playoff appearance, though division title or greater seems ambitious at best. Utah’s veterans should raise the floor, but age-related decline—Lee is 35—limits how much upside they add.

San Jose took a more aggressive approach. The Sharks drafted Stenberg and added Mason Marchment and Jacob Trouba through free agency while acquiring Darnell Nurse from Edmonton.

Marchment is the safest of those additions. He scored 15 goals and 32 points in 39 games after joining Columbus last season and has reached at least 19 goals in three consecutive years. A role alongside Celebrini or Will Smith could help him top the 25-goal mark.

The defensive additions are less certain. Trouba and Nurse bring experience, physicality and difficult-minute capability, but both have recently attracted questions about efficiency and puck movement. Playing them together could leave San Jose vulnerable against fast teams.

The Sharks should improve because Stenberg and Marchment add legitimate offence around their young centres. Whether the defence improves enough to produce a playoff berth remains to be seen.

High Risk, High Reward?

Toronto’s offseason could fail because its three most important additions all carry unusual levels of uncertainty.

Bobrovsky is 37 and coming off an .877 save percentage. McKenna is an 18-year-old who has never played an NHL game. The supporting veterans improve Toronto’s depth, but none projects as an elite play-driver.

The Maple Leafs also play in an Atlantic Division containing Florida, Tampa Bay, Montreal, Buffalo, Ottawa and Boston. A 15-point improvement would not guarantee a playoff position, particularly with two additional divisional games being added to the 2026–27 schedule.

When predicting who will benefit most from offseason additions, Washington may therefore be the smarter choice. The Capitals already earned 95 points, and both Tuch and Kyrou have demonstrated that they can produce at a top-six level. Their path requires less improvement and less projection.

There is also a scenario in which San Jose’s young players advance more quickly than expected. If Stenberg immediately complements Celebrini and Marchment maintains his post-trade production the Sharks could make a huge jump in the Western Conference.

Final judgement

Washington made the best immediate trades. San Jose created the most interesting mix of young talent and experienced additions. Utah made sensible moves for a team trying to remain in the playoffs.

Toronto, however, addressed more of its weaknesses at once.

Bobrovsky gives the Maple Leafs a plausible solution in goal. McKenna introduces elite playmaking potential at an entry-level cap hit. Paul, Roslovic, Sissons, Blueger and Duhaime provide the lineup with more depth, defensive utility and role flexibility.

The Leafs aren’t likely to knock on the Stanley Cup’s door, but a return to playoff relevance is in order.

Toronto should produce the NHL’s largest standings improvement, finish above 95 points and remain in the playoff race through the final weeks of the season. Washington is the stronger bet to qualify, but the Maple Leafs have the greater range for improvement.

What to watch

Several early indicators will determine whether that prediction remains on track:

McKenna’s training-camp deployment: A top-six role and first-unit power-play time would strengthen his Calder Trophy outlook.

Toronto’s goaltending split: Bobrovsky becomes a greater risk if the Maple Leafs expect him to carry a traditional starter’s workload.

Washington’s line combinations: Separating Tuch and Kyrou may create greater scoring balance than using both on one top-heavy unit.

Stenberg’s opening-night status: Making San Jose immediately would give the Sharks two potential franchise forwards from consecutive drafts.

Utah’s power-play roles: Lee’s impact will depend heavily on whether he receives consistent net-front minutes with the first unit.

San Jose’s defensive pairings: Nurse and Trouba may help separately, but using them together could expose the same transition problems the Sharks are attempting to solve.

The Atlantic standings after 20 games: If Toronto remains near the playoff line while McKenna adjusts, its veteran additions should give the Leafs a better chance of improving as the season progresses.

The 2026 offseason produced more big-name movement than most years, but the defining story may not be which newcomer posts the most points. Instead, sharp eyes will be on which organization correctly deploys their new talent to address prevailing weaknesses. Toronto has taken the largest risk, and as a result, has the clearest opportunity to turn that risk into the league’s biggest turnaround.