How far does one win move a team when the committee has already named the one thing it was missing? That’s the question over Notre Dame heading into Tuesday night, and the answer decides most of the shuffle around Miami, Utah and Ohio State.

A week ago the College Football Playoff selection committee had Notre Dame 11th at 7-1. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek praised the Irish, then gave the catch: “they don’t have that signature win right now.” On Saturday night in South Bend, Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24. That’s about as direct a reply to a stated objection as a schedule allows.

The second rankings are scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 10, in the 9 p.m. ET window on ESPN. Here’s where the four teams in question, plus the new AP No. 1, stood before and after Week 10:

Start with Notre Dame, because some of its climb takes no judgment at all. Three of the teams ranked between 6th and 10th last week lost on Saturday: Kentucky fell 34-6 to Tennessee, BYU lost at Utah and Ole Miss lost 42-7 at Georgia. Add Miami, which the Irish just beat head-to-head, and that’s four teams Notre Dame passes without the committee needing to rethink anything. That alone puts it around seventh.

Going higher takes a decision. Above that line sit Indiana (8-1, idle this week), Alabama (7-2, a 31-13 win over LSU), Texas (7-2, beat Missouri 34-20) and UCLA (9-0, beat Minnesota 34-20). The committee has shown it likes Alabama and Texas, keeping both ahead of an unbeaten UCLA last week. But neither has a win on the level of Notre Dame’s, and the AP voters already moved the Irish to third. If the committee weighs the Miami result as heavily as Yurachek’s comment suggests it might, a jump into the top four is realistic. If it holds onto its regard for the two-loss SEC and Big 12 contenders, something in the 5-7 range looks likelier.

The concession is that Notre Dame’s loss hasn’t aged well. Yurachek noted last week that the Irish “lost in their only Top 25 matchup at BYU,” and BYU now has two losses after Saturday. Still, the committee’s stated complaint was the missing marquee win, not the loss. One of those has now changed.

Miami is harder to place. The Hurricanes lost by seven on the road to a team the committee had in its top 12, and they had the ball late with a chance to tie. Maybe the committee reads that as a respectable loss and drops Miami only behind Notre Dame and the teams that won. That would leave it somewhere around fourth to sixth, close to the AP’s fifth. Or maybe the 17-3 hole Miami dug before halftime counts for more in the room than the late push. Either way, a slide out of the projected field after one road loss would be unusual. The more practical question is whether Miami stays in the group of top seeds or ends up in the 5-8 group that hosts a first-round game.

Then there’s Utah, the team the bigger question turns on. Will the committee treat an unbeaten Big 12 team the way the AP voters do? So far it has, and with less resistance than you might expect. Last week it put Utah third, ahead of 8-0 UCLA, even though the Salt Lake Tribune pegged Utah’s strength of schedule at No. 83 nationally. Asked about it, Yurachek called the Utah and UCLA résumés “almost identical” and said the committee “felt like Utah was above UCLA and just a better team when we watch them play.” Put plainly, the eye test broke a tie the numbers couldn’t.

That matters for Tuesday. If a soft schedule didn’t keep Utah out of the top three before it played BYU, it’s hard to see the schedule costing the Utes now that they’ve added a 28-20 win over the committee’s No. 9 team. With Miami losing, Utah is the most obvious candidate for second behind Georgia, which beat Ole Miss by 35 and took 53 of 70 first-place votes in the AP poll. The condition is that the committee doesn’t decide Notre Dame’s win over Miami, or Alabama’s two-loss SEC résumé, outweighs a perfect record. Neither would be a shock. Neither has much support in how the committee explained itself a week ago.

Where the committee and AP voters have actually split is UCLA. The Bruins were eighth in the committee’s ranking, three spots below where the AP had them that week, and they’re now fourth in the AP at 9-0. If there’s a gap to watch between the committee and the voters, it’s there more than with Utah.

Ohio State is the cleanest projection of the four, and the least comfortable for its fan base. The Buckeyes lost 30-18 at USC on Oct. 31 and then lost 41-28 at home to Oregon, giving up 38 straight points after leading 14-0. The committee had Ohio State 12th last week, USC 20th and Oregon 23rd. Both of those teams now hold a head-to-head win over the Buckeyes. If the committee leans on that, Ohio State lands below both, which puts it somewhere around the AP’s No. 21 or lower and out of the projected field.

One mitigating factor is quarterback availability. Freshman Luke Fahey started at USC in place of the injured Julian Sayin and was at quarterback again against Oregon. The committee can account for that kind of absence. It’s harder to lean on, though, when the Oregon loss came at home against a team the committee ranked 23rd.

For anyone following the playoff picture with a betting eye, Tuesday’s order is a read on how the committee weighs résumés, not a final answer. Further rankings are scheduled for Nov. 17, Nov. 24 and Dec. 1, before selection day on Dec. 6.

So the CFP rankings prediction comes down to two possible outcomes for Utah. If the Utes are second on Tuesday and Notre Dame sits somewhere in the top six, the committee is grading the way the AP voters are: records first, marquee wins next and schedule strength as a tiebreaker. If Notre Dame or Alabama shows up above Utah, then that No. 83 schedule number is doing more work in the room than the chair let on last week. The next CFP rankings should show which it is.