I’d like to make a modest suggestion to the Los Angeles Rams, and I offer it with the full authority of someone who has never called a play in his life: stop running the last couple of plays.

Look at the evidence. On Oct. 18 against Arizona, Davante Adams pulled up on the Rams’ second-to-last offensive snap, and the next day Sean McVay said the hamstring injury would cost him six to 10 weeks. On Nov. 8, in a 20-13 win over Washington, Puka Nacua hurt his knee on the final offensive snap, an end-around that went nowhere much. Two star receivers, two games, and both hurt with the game nearly over. I’m not saying the closing minutes are cursed. I’m saying I’d look into it.

The Puka Nacua injury story has taken a few turns since. On Monday, McVay said Nacua was likely headed for injured reserve with MCL and PCL sprains and turf toe. By Wednesday the Rams had decided against IR, though McVay was clear about what that didn’t mean: “He’s still going to be out for a significant period of time.” Nacua didn’t practice Wednesday, and CBS describes it as a multi-week absence. Adams is still on IR, and McVay has said he expects him back sooner rather than later. Reports have pointed at Week 12 or Week 13. I’m not going to guess about a knee or a hamstring. Friday’s injury report will be official in a way I never will.

What’s left is a road game in Glendale on Sunday, Nov. 15, at 4:05 p.m. ET, against a 3-6 Cardinals team that beat the 5-4 Rams in October. And there’s a math problem.

Since Week 7, Matthew Stafford has thrown 97 targets, and 41 of them went to Nacua, according to the Rams’ own website. That’s 42.3 percent. Over the whole season, with Adams around for six games, Nacua’s share was 27.6 percent, per CBS. So lately the Rams’ passing game has worked like a house where every appliance runs off the same outlet.

That outlet just tripped.

So who gets those targets?

Here’s the candidate list, and fair warning: it reads less like a depth chart than a group text. Among the Rams wide receivers still standing, Konata Mumpfield has been the most productive, with 11 catches for 162 yards, including a four-catch, 93-yard, one-touchdown day against Denver in Week 3. Tutu Atwell had a 40-yard catch against the Chargers in Week 8. Xavier Smith is back on the roster this week; the last time he got a bigger role, last season, he caught 18 of 24 targets for 303 yards. CJ Daniels is in the mix too.

The tight ends are where I’d look first. Tyler Higbee has 28 catches for 287 yards, third on the team in receiving yards. Colby Parkinson has 18 for 116, and the team’s site says the Rams are counting on him to help them run 13 personnel, the three-tight-end look. Davis Allen has two receiving touchdowns. The catch, so to speak, is health: Parkinson (ribs) and Allen (oblique) were limited Wednesday, and Terrance Ferguson isn’t expected back this week. Then there’s the backfield. Kyren Williams has 46 targets and 36 catches, second on the team in receptions.

My verdict is plain. Nobody inherits Nacua’s targets. They get split, like a dinner check among people who all swear they only had the salad. Yahoo’s fantasy injury report gets to the same place by a different road: it doesn’t expect any receiver to see the volume Nacua did.

Stafford, for his part, isn’t fretting about it in public. “I trust those guys to be in the right spots, and that’s what this game’s all about,” he said this week.

What does that mean for Stafford’s own volume? The betting market has had an interesting week with that question. On Monday morning DraftKings had the Rams at -7 with a total of 45.5, per CBS. By Thursday, DraftKings’ listing on ESPN showed the Rams at -9.5 and a total of 39.5, and BetMGM had -9.5 and 40 in SI’s Tuesday preview. The market now expects the Rams to win by more and the two teams to score less. A bigger favorite, a smaller scoreboard.

Arizona explains a lot of that. Gardner Minshew was hurt last Sunday, Jacoby Brissett had already been traded to Baltimore, and rookie Carson Beck, a third-round pick, makes his first NFL start. The Cardinals rank 22nd in total yards and 26th in scoring, and they’ve lost Michael Wilson for the season with a neck fracture. Yahoo calls Sunday “an easy draw for the run game.” Add Stafford playing through an elbow injury, as Field Level Media reports, and you can picture a version of Sunday where the Rams get ahead, hand it to Williams and Blake Corum, and Stafford’s attempts shrink. You can also picture the version where Beck plays well and Stafford spends the afternoon throwing to tight ends. I don’t know which one shows up. The line doesn’t either. It just has to pick a number.

(For the record, Arizona won October’s game 18-16 with no touchdown passes and six Chad Ryland field goals. Low totals have a sense of humor.)

If you’re looking at receiving props for the Rams’ replacements, remember that many of them are getting priced before Friday’s designations, on roles nobody has actually seen yet. None of this is a promise. A target share is a habit, and the Rams are about to find out who has the new habits.

As for my original proposal: if the Rams are ahead late in Glendale, I know what I’d call on the last snap. A kneel-down. Nobody has to get open for that one.

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