How much of the Big Ten title race does Saturday’s USC-Indiana game in Bloomington actually settle? More than any other game this week. Less than the hype suggests.

Here’s the board after Week 10. UCLA is 6-0 in conference play and Indiana is 5-1. Six teams sit at 4-2, a group that now includes Ohio State after its second straight loss: 41-28 at home to Oregon on Nov. 7, a week after a 30-18 loss at USC. Every contender has three conference games left, so nobody in that 4-2 group can finish better than 7-2. That number drives most of the Big Ten championship game scenarios below. The game itself is set for Saturday, Dec. 5, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis (8 p.m. ET, FOX).

Conference records per the Big Ten standings, as of Nov. 9.

Northwestern and Minnesota are 3-3 and play each other on Nov. 21. They’re alive only in the sense that the arithmetic hasn’t closed on them yet.

A pile-up at 7-2 is a real possibility, so the tiebreakers matter. Under the Big Ten’s published procedure, a two-team tie for the second spot goes to head-to-head first. If the teams didn’t play, it goes to record against all common conference opponents, then record against those common opponents in order of their finish, then the combined conference winning percentage of each team’s opponents, then the SportSource Analytics team rating, and finally a random draw by the commissioner. Ties of three or more use head-to-head only if all the tied teams played each other, or if one of them beat every other team in the group. Otherwise it goes straight to common opponents. With 18 teams and nine conference games each, a lot of these contenders never meet.

1. If Indiana beats USC

Indiana controls its own path, and USC is all but out.

A win puts Indiana at 6-1, needing only to win at Washington on Nov. 21 and at home against Purdue on Nov. 28 to finish 8-1. No team other than UCLA can reach eight conference wins, so 8-1 is a guaranteed trip to Indianapolis, whatever happens elsewhere. USC would fall to 4-3 with a ceiling of 6-3. For a 6-3 team to get in, Indiana would have to lose its last two and every other 4-2 team would have to lose at least once more. Possible on paper. Not much more than that.

Caveat: Washington and Purdue are both 2-4 in the league, but Indiana hasn’t been winning conference games comfortably. Four of its five Big Ten wins came by seven points or fewer, two of them in overtime. That’s not a reason to expect a slip, but it’s a reason not to treat 8-1 as a formality. The market sees the same split. Fox Sports listed Indiana as a 7.5-point favorite on Nov. 9, which says which branch is expected, not which one happens.

2. If USC wins in Bloomington

The second spot opens up, and USC still has to finish the job at the Rose Bowl.

Indiana and USC would both be 5-2 and both capped at 7-2. USC would hold head-to-head wins over Indiana and Ohio State, which settles any two-team tie with either. But it lost to Oregon and Wisconsin, and it still has Maryland and then UCLA on Nov. 28. Even at 7-2, USC’s fate in a three-way tie depends on who else is in it. A tie that includes Oregon or Wisconsin, which both beat USC, gets decided further down the list, and that part can’t be worked out yet.

Caveat: A loss doesn’t end Indiana’s run, but it changes who it can beat in a tie. At 7-2, Indiana would lose a two-team tiebreaker to Ohio State (19-15 winners in Bloomington), to USC on head-to-head, and to Oregon on common opponents (more on that below).

3. If UCLA wins two of its last three

It’s in.

Any two wins get UCLA to at least 8-1, a mark only Indiana can match, and that would put both of them in Indianapolis. The first chance comes Friday night against Illinois at the Rose Bowl, before anyone else plays.

Caveat: If UCLA loses twice, and Illinois and USC are both still on the schedule, it drops into the 7-2 pool. It would hold head-to-head wins over Oregon and Wisconsin there, and losses to whoever beat it.

4. If Oregon wins out

It’s the best placed of the 4-2 teams, but it needs Indiana to lose once.

Oregon finishes against Michigan, at Michigan State on Nov. 20 and against Washington, three teams with a combined 5-13 conference record. It already holds head-to-head wins over USC and Ohio State. It doesn’t play Indiana, so a two-team tie at 7-2 would go to record against their common conference opponents: Northwestern, Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington. If Oregon wins out, it’s 6-0 against that group. Indiana, which already lost to Ohio State, can’t do better than 5-1.

Caveat: Oregon’s own losses (17-15 to UCLA, 21-10 at Illinois) would count against it in any tie that includes either of those teams. And it needs Indiana to lose a game Indiana won’t be expected to lose.

5. If Ohio State wins out

It needs three things it doesn’t control.

Ohio State finishes against Northwestern, at Nebraska and against Michigan. At 7-2 it would hold head-to-head wins over Indiana, Iowa and Illinois, and losses to Oregon and USC. Its path breaks into three separate requirements. First, Indiana beats USC on Saturday, which knocks USC out of the 7-2 group. Second, Indiana then loses one of its last two. Third, Oregon drops a game somewhere. Each one is plausible. Needing all three is the problem, and that’s what two straight losses did to the Buckeyes. They went from controlling their path to depending on other results.

Caveat: If Oregon wins out too, a three-way tie with Indiana wouldn’t be settled by head-to-head, because Oregon and Indiana didn’t play. It would go to common opponents, and that’s still open.

6. If the answer is Iowa, Wisconsin or Illinois

Each one has a narrower path than the teams above.

Iowa and Illinois meet in Champaign on Nov. 21, so the loser can’t reach 7-2. Illinois also has the hardest finish of anyone, starting at UCLA on Friday. Iowa lost to Ohio State, which costs it a two-team tie there, and against Indiana it can’t win the common-opponent step outright. The best it can do is draw level and go further down the list. Wisconsin is the more interesting case. Its finish is soft (Maryland, Purdue and Minnesota are a combined 6-12 in the league), and it already holds a win over USC. Against Indiana at 7-2, the common opponents would be Rutgers, USC, Purdue and Minnesota. If Wisconsin wins out and Indiana’s one loss comes against USC or Purdue, Wisconsin wins that comparison. If Indiana’s loss comes at Washington, they’re even, and it goes to the next step.

Caveat: Wisconsin lost to UCLA and Iowa, so any tie that includes either of those teams gets harder fast.